The hottest industry will continue to grow steadil

2022-08-08
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In the second half of 2018, the industry will continue to grow steadily and rapidly.

. In addition, China US trade friction is expected to rise, and there is a certain degree of pessimism in the market. We believe that despite the challenges of structural deleveraging and Sino US trade frictions, the macro economy will remain stable in the second half of the year

industry will continue to grow steadily and at a high speed

in the second half of the year, cyclical industries and high-tech industries will continue to grow at a high speed. From the industrial production data of different industries, affected by the continuous upward trend of bulk commodity prices, the growth rate of cyclical industries rose from about 0.8% of the number of each test mold on the clapboard and end plate at the end of last year to about 3.3% in April, with a rise rate of 4.1 percentage points, driving the overall industrial growth of 0.63 percentage points, and contributing 90% to the overall industrial recovery. It is expected that in the second half of the year, commodity prices will continue to fluctuate upward, and cyclical industries will continue to maintain high-speed growth. Supported by transformation and upgrading and a large amount of R & D investment, the high-tech industry will also maintain steady and rapid growth

in addition, the stabilization of infrastructure investment provides demand support for industrial growth. In the second half of the year, with the accelerated issuance of local bonds, the capital constraints faced by infrastructure investment will be eased to a certain extent, and the sharp and rapid decline in infrastructure investment will be reversed, which will bring demand power to industrial growth

on May 1, the VAT reduction of manufacturing, transportation, construction and other industries and agricultural products and other goods was officially implemented, and the policy dividend is expected to become a new driving force for growth. However, due to the impact of Sino US trade friction, the growth of equipment manufacturing industry is facing a test. From the first batch of taxable goods announced by the United States, they are mainly concentrated in automobiles and their accessories, electronic circuits, mechanical parts of industrial equipment and other similar goods. Affected by this, the growth pressure of the mechanical equipment manufacturing industry, which can also test new technologies in low-yield vehicles other than the mainstream, increased sharply in the second half of the year

potential for growth in the service industry

in may, the business activity index of the service industry was 54.0%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, 0.5 percentage points higher than that of the same period of the previous year; The new order index of the service industry reached 50.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the market demand has maintained an expanding trend. The business activity index of air transport, postal express, telecommunications, Internet software and other industries continued to be in the high boom range of more than 60.0%; The business activity indexes of traditional industries such as retail and accommodation are higher than the overall level of the service industry

in the second half of the year, major industries will continue to maintain rapid growth. In May, the information transmission, software and information technology service industries continued to grow at a high speed, with a growth rate of more than 30%, and showed a trend of continuous improvement, which is the main driving force for the rapid development of the service industry; The leasing and business service industries maintained rapid double-digit growth, with a growth rate of 2.5 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year; The growth rate of transportation, warehousing, postal service, financial industry and real estate industry was faster than that of the previous month

investment shows a steady upward trend

first, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will be stable at about 5%. Due to the impact of fiscal consolidation and strengthened financial supervision, the main financing channels of infrastructure investment have been greatly affected. In addition to the high base of last year, since the beginning of the year, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has decreased significantly, which has become the main factor hindering the overall investment growth. However, historical data show that the peak period of local bond issuance is from May to August. By the end of May, local bond issuance was less than 1trillion yuan. According to the annual plan, 2.2 trillion yuan will be issued in the second half of the year. High frequency data also show that the issuance scale in June has begun to increase. With the gradual increase of the supply scale of local bonds, and the central bank reducing the deposit reserve by 0.5 percentage points from July 5, certain liquidity will be released, and the pressure on the source of infrastructure funds will be relieved. The decline in the growth rate of infrastructure investment will be eased to some extent. It is expected that the growth rate of investment in the second half of the year will remain at about 5%

Clearing experimental platform

secondly, the growth rate of real estate development investment will fall back to about 7%. The growth rate of real estate development investment in the first five months was 10.2%, and the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises in the same period was 77.42 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of only 2.1%. This means that in the investment of developers, the cost of purchasing land increases significantly. This view can be verified from the data of state-owned land use right transfer. From January to may, the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights was 2225.1 billion yuan, an increase of 45.9% year-on-year, which means that the price of state-owned land has increased alarmingly. If the land acquisition cost in the real estate development investment is excluded, the growth rate of the remaining real estate development investment will be -1.5%. In the context of tighter credit, developers are faced with increasing financing difficulties and declining capital turnover. From January to may, the source of funds increased by 5.1% year-on-year, only half of the same period last year. Domestic loans, foreign capital and other sources of funds showed negative growth. Therefore, it is expected that the growth rate of real estate development investment will tend to fall back in the second half of the year, and the growth rate will fall back to about 8%

thirdly, the manufacturing investment rose to about 7%. Since the beginning of the year, manufacturing investment has shown a steady recovery, mainly due to the rapid growth of private investment. In the structural deleveraging environment, private investment is expected to maintain rapid growth in the second half of the year. At the same time, the profits of enterprises in the early stage are good. In addition, under the pressure of Sino US trade friction, the channels for the introduction, digestion and reabsorption of China's high-tech industries are blocked, and the independent innovation of enterprises may be made. The investment growth of high-tech manufacturing industry may become an important force to drive the investment growth of the overall manufacturing industry. It is expected that the manufacturing investment will continue to maintain a steady recovery trend, with the growth rate rising to about 7% in the second half of the year

the downward trend of consumption growth is expected to ease

the most worrying consumption growth from January to May. In particular, in May, the consumption growth rate dropped by 0.9% compared with the previous month. Unlike the investment growth, which was mainly dragged down by the sharp decline in infrastructure investment, consumption growth showed a decline in the growth of all categories except petroleum products, communication equipment, household appliances, etc. It is expected that the downward trend of consumption growth in the second half of the year will be eased, and the overall trend will be stable, with a growth rate of about 9.3%

there are four reasons. First, the short-term disturbance factors will disappear. The short-term fluctuations in the growth rate of the consumer goods market in May were mainly due to the superposition of factors such as the Dragon Boat Festival holiday (last year's Dragon Boat Festival holiday was in May) and the tax policy adjustment of automobile commodities, which accounted for a relatively high proportion. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, if these two short-term disturbing factors are excluded, the consumption growth in May will be higher than that in April. Second, better employment and faster income growth are the fundamental guarantee for consumption growth. In the first quarter of 2018, which is related to the lives and health of the general public and social stability, the national per capita disposable income grew by 8.8% in nominal terms, 0.3 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The unemployment rate surveyed in May was 4.8%, falling for three consecutive months. The steady growth of residents' income and employment will support consumption not to fall too fast. Third, consumption upgrading commodities grew rapidly. With the steady growth of residents' income and the continuous increase of effective supply, the consumption upgrading category has maintained rapid growth, such as communication equipment and cosmetics, which have maintained a rapid growth of more than 10%, and the growth rate is accelerating. In addition, the recovery of the prosperity of the real estate market will drive the growth of furniture, decoration, household appliances and other consumption to a certain extent. Fourth, Sino US trade frictions may restrain some consumption. The Ministry of Commerce announced that from July 6, it would impose a 25% tariff on some imported goods from the United States, which would restrain the consumption of these goods to a certain extent, but the substitution effect would also correspondingly increase the consumption of other similar goods

the overall price remains stable

in the second half of the year, the CPI center will move up. First of all, data show that pork prices have shown signs of recovery in May. With the improvement of supply and demand pattern, pork prices are expected to be further repaired in the second half of the year. Secondly, the survey data of urban savers released by the central bank shows that the willingness of residents to travel has increased significantly in recent years, and more residents may choose to travel around the Spring Festival, thus amplifying the fluctuation of tourism prices around the Spring Festival. Therefore, tourism prices may become an important disturbing factor for CPI data before and after holidays in the future. Overall, affected by the rise in pork prices and crude oil prices, CPI in the second half of the year may be higher than that in the first half of the year

in the second half of the year, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI may fall back. From the historical data, the price of crude oil and steel is the most important factor affecting China's PPI index. Under the joint influence of the higher than expected rise of oil price and the first fall and then rise of steel price, PPI walked out of the "V" shaped reversal from January to may 2018. First of all, from the perspective of steel supply and demand, the supply and demand pattern of steel in 2018 has significantly improved compared with that in 2017. It is expected that the fall in demand in the fourth quarter of 2018 will bring downward pressure on steel prices. Secondly, from the perspective of the trend of crude oil price, there is still a certain gap between supply and demand of crude oil in the second half of the year, and the crude oil price is estimated to still show a fluctuating upward trend. Generally speaking, there is still room for the rise of crude oil price in the second half of the year, but the steel price may fall, adding the impact of the higher year-on-year base. It is expected that the PPI may fall in the second half of the year

the impact of Sino US trade frictions is limited

recently, Sino US trade frictions have continued to heat up. By constructing a Dynamic CGE model, we make a preliminary calculation of the economic impact under each taxation scenario. First, if the United States imposes a 25% tariff on China's $50billion export commodities, it will have a negative impact on China's economic growth of 0.111, 0.099 and 0.087 percentage points in 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively. The impact of this plan on the macro economy is relatively limited, and it will show a downward trend year by year with the passage of time. Second, if the United States imposes another 10% tariff on China's $200billion export commodities on the basis of the original $50billion, it will have a negative impact on China's economic growth of 0.262 and 0.235 percentage points in 2019 and 2020 respectively. As the above plan is still in the preliminary conception stage of the US side, it will not be implemented until the end of 2018 at the earliest. Therefore, the overall impact effect of the plan on China's macro economy in 2018 is not investigated in this paper. Third, if the United States imposes another 10% tariff on China's $200billion export commodities on the basis of the above $250billion, it will have a negative impact on China's economic growth of 0.431% and 0.393% in 2019 and 2020 respectively

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